Future Forward

Seyi Fabode (00:09)
Hello, hello, hello, Reza, how are you? I am doing well, I am doing well. It is another episode of Future Forward.

Reza (00:11)
I'm good Seyi how are you doing?

Yeah, Shay, in this one, we're going to talk about the future of Atlanta. So this is another one of our City Edition episodes. I was in Atlanta last week for my annual company meeting. I worked for Document Crunch and we had our annual meeting called Crunch Fest. And I got to experience a bit of Atlanta, which I'm going to touch on sort of specifically in this episode, the two places I was in Atlanta when I was at my conference.

Seyi Fabode (00:20)
Thank

Reza (00:43)
but then also just give our typical city episode a deep dive.

Seyi Fabode (00:47)
lens. Yeah,

yeah. Before you dive in, welcome to our listeners, both new and old, to the old or regulars, not old, the regulars. Thank you for listening. We're appreciative as always. And for the new listeners, welcome. Thanks for joining our conversation. Reza and I have been having for years and we thought

about a year ago, just over a year ago, we thought, you know what, let's invite a few more people into the conversation. So here you are joining us as we talk about the history of cities, what's currently going on, pulling a thread from the past into the present, and then providing some strategic foresights about where we think cities are going and all framed from some laws we came up with months ago.

21 laws of cities which have come from research by experts. We used to say we're not experts, but I think Reza, we can safely claim we've gained a bunch of expertise in all the episodes, but mainly because of the curiosity we bring to the show. And we find that our listeners are also quite curious. So welcome. Thanks for joining us.

Reza (01:46)
Yeah.

Seyi Fabode (01:58)
And today we will be talking about the city of Atlanta.

Reza (02:02)
Yeah. And so to start with, Che, you know, we're to start with the historical context and, know, the really the topic over here is, you know, going from a railroad terminus to a regional hub. So for us to understand Atlanta's future, we really need to understand its unique historical place. So unlike most southern cities that developed around agriculture or ports, Atlanta came from a pure transportation necessity.

Seyi Fabode (02:26)
Mm.

Reza (02:27)
It

began as a railroad junction in the 1840s when three railroad lines intersected at what would become downtown Atlanta. And this transportation centric origin profoundly shaped Atlanta's DNA. It has always been about connectivity and movement. Now the Civil War was devastating, but it really transformed the city. General Sherman's burning of Atlanta in 1864 destroyed the physical city, but it couldn't eliminate its strategic transportation advantages. And so during reconstruction,

while much of the South remained agricultural, Atlanta embraced industrialization. The railroad infrastructure attracted manufacturing jobs, which drew workers from across the region. And this early pattern of rapid population growth driven by economic opportunity continues to define Atlanta even today. And so in the 20th century, Atlanta consciously branded itself as the city too busy to hate, which I think is funny, positioning itself as the progressive face of the new South.

Seyi Fabode (03:17)
Hahaha!

Reza (03:21)
And so this strategic identity attracted businesses relocating from the Rust Belt and international companies seeking an American headquarters. The 1996 Summer Olympics represented Atlanta's full emergence as a global city, spurring massive infrastructure investments that continue paying dividends. And so this is like a little thing from our stadiums episode last week about like the, you know, bringing people to Atlanta and sports to Atlanta was a, you know, sort of played a part in

giving the city a certain identity around the world from that sporting event. But most significantly, Atlanta developed as a black Mecca, a place where African Americans could build wealth, political power, cultural institutions. And this legacy shapes Atlanta's unique demographic profile. And it continues to influence its politics, its culture, and its economic development patterns.

Seyi Fabode (03:51)
Mm.

Yeah, it's such an interesting city. Thanks for providing that historical context. The friends and colleagues over the years that I've gotten to know from Atlanta are astonishingly proud of Atlanta. That framing of the city too busy to hate is not just a phrase, it's a culture. There's a very clear...

We're here, we're making things happen and the rest of you all join us if you want to, but if you don't, that's your problem, you know? Very much so and it's a hub. Atlanta Airport is still the busiest, I think, in the world.

Reza (04:39)
Yeah

Yeah, yeah.

It is.

I'm certain in the US, ⁓ yeah.

Seyi Fabode (04:56)
Yeah, yeah,

it's, I can safely say in the US exactly. ⁓ And you feel that when you go to the airport as well. I'm sure you experienced that as you were there a few days ago. So thanks for the historical background. The black maker statement is real. I have, again, friends, colleagues, even family.

Reza (05:00)
Yeah. Yeah.

Yes. Yes.

Seyi Fabode (05:16)
who also believe there's no better place in terms of economic opportunity for black Americans than in Atlanta. And that plays out in the approach to business and the welcoming nature for entrepreneurship across the board. pretty fascinating place.

didn't know that about the transportation history. So thanks for sharing.

Reza (05:42)
Yeah. Yeah. So Shay, that's a really good sort of personal touch on like you've had friends there, you've experienced their experience of Atlanta. And, you as I talk about the present day snapshot about this booming Metro that has some challenges, I think it goes to show like what makes this place special, but also what makes some of the challenges the city faces crucial to our understanding of

how cities grow and what they need to do with these economic and ecological challenges that we often talk about. So I'm gonna touch on five things about Atlanta, just sort of a snapshot. And then I'm gonna do two case studies about places in Atlanta. So population demographics, number one, Metro Atlanta is home to over six million residents, is among the fastest growing Metro regions in the US. It's racially and economically diverse, but also highly unequal.

Atlanta consistently ranks as having one of the lowest rates of upward mobility among major American cities. ⁓ Two, transportation, the crucial part of Atlanta. It remains heavily car dependent with the average commute time over 30 minutes. MARTA, or Metropolitan Atlanta Rapid Transit Authority, serves the core counties, but doesn't extend far into the suburbs, and the result is limited regional transit coverage, and I'll bring this up in my case study. ⁓ The Atlanta Beltline,

Seyi Fabode (06:34)
Hmm.

crazy.

Hmm.

Reza (06:57)
22 mile loop of mixed use trails and transit corridors is a major ongoing urban redevelopment project, but has also been critiqued for accelerating gentrification displacement. So it's had its trade-offs. Third topic, parks and green space. Atlanta is known for its tree canopy, and I can attest to that. It's often called a city in a forest, just beautiful trees, big trees everywhere. It's really beautiful, very green. The Beltline, which I just mentioned, has also been central to park

Seyi Fabode (07:07)
Mm.

You

Reza (07:23)
and Greenland for Atlanta. It has 1,300s of new green space that's been planned, but access remains uneven, particularly in low income and historically black neighborhoods. The four topic, infrastructure and resilience, the city faces significant storm water and flooding challenges, especially in under...

underserved communities like People's Town. Water supply is a major long-term concern. The tri-state water wars with Alabama and Florida has highlighted vulnerabilities in Atlanta's dependence on Lake Linear. Lake Linear is going to be one of my case studies in this episode. And then the fifth point here in the snapshot, regional governance and corporation, which is a challenge. Atlanta consists of over 60 municipalities and multiple counties making regional collaboration challenging.

Seyi Fabode (07:55)
Mmm.

Reza (08:09)
Organizations like the Atlanta Regional Commission, ARC, are working to coordinate planning, especially around housing, mobility, and workforce development. Notably, Gwinnett County and Cobb County still lack MARTA rail service, a major part of contention and regional imbalance. So I mentioned MARTA not being able to go to all the suburbs, so that's made it a challenge. So that's a quick snapshot, And before I jump into the case studies,

Seyi Fabode (08:26)
on the suburbs,

Reza (08:33)
curious to hear your take.

Seyi Fabode (08:34)
Yeah, I'm forgetting the specific incident, but there was an incident a few years ago where that 30 minute commute time for the average commuter in Atlanta ended up being about an hour and a half or so across the board in any direction people were going, which again, if.

you're so centrally or like seriously dependent on on vehicular transportation, which is one of the knocks on Atlanta. That is an impossible and horrible experience to have. And unfortunately, that's to happen a lot more. I guess that's that's the that's the framing here. So thanks for for sharing and breaking it down into those sections.

The second one I'll just touch on before you move on is I was super surprised about how green Atlanta is when I first visited. And every time I go, it still sort of baffles me a little bit. Just so much greenery, but uneven in its accessibility across the demographics, socioeconomic especially in the city.

It is, you'd expect it to be a lot more accessible because of how green and how vast it is. You said 1,300 acres of green space is being planned. That's phenomenal. That's considering how much green space currently exists. It's fascinating that they plan to add a lot more of that.

Reza (09:55)
Yes. Yes.

Seyi Fabode (10:07)
We all know the more green space, the less heat sinks you have in the city. The more walkable green space, the healthier the populace will be. So all these things suggest a path toward a future that you and I would absolutely love to see ⁓ in a city like Atlanta.

Reza (10:17)
Yes.

Yeah.

Yeah. And so, those are really good. And I want to sort of go a little bit further with this snapshot by picking two topics. One is about Lake Lanier, and one is about the suburb of Alpharetta. And these are two, I picked these two because our company retreat or meeting was at

at Lake Lanier, one of the conference centers over there. And so was curious about it and it fits really well into this sort of infrastructure water resilience topic. And Alpharetta is where we have our office. Our new office is gonna be in Alpharetta for headquarters. And that suburb has a role to play in this regional planning challenge. So let's start with Lake Lanier.

Seyi Fabode (11:13)
Mm.

Reza (11:16)
and the Tri-State Water Wars that I brought up a little earlier. So a little background on that. The Tri-State Water Wars refer to a decades long legal and political battle between Georgia, Alabama and Florida over access to water from the Apple Lake Chicola Chattahoochee. Wow, that's a mouthful. ⁓

Seyi Fabode (11:36)
It is, yeah.

Reza (11:40)
River Basin, includes Lake Lanier, Atlanta's primary drinking water source. Lake Lanier was created in the 1950s by damming the Chattahoochee River and was originally intended for flood control, hydropower, and navigation and not as a drinking water supply. But over time, Atlanta's rapid population growth put enormous pressure on Lake Lanier, drawing as much as 70 % of its water for municipal and industrial use in North Georgia. And so the conflict is Alabama and Florida argued that

Georgia hoards water, reducing downstream flow and threatening ecosystems and industries in their states. Florida claims excessive water use by Georgia hurts the Apala-Chicola Bay oyster fishery, which collapsed in 2012. The battle went all the way to the Supreme Court in 2021, the court ruled in favor of Georgia, but the underlying tensions persist. And why does it matter? mean, Atlanta's hydrological future is fragile, especially under climate change, which brings, you know, hotter summers, more intense droughts.

And the city is dependent on this single source combined with a fragmented regional planning makes long-term water resilience a really difficult urban systems challenge. And so they might have some solutions like green stormwater infrastructure and demand management and water reuse. But the real main challenge there is more coordinated planning across the metro.

Seyi Fabode (12:58)
Yeah, I am another really good example Reza. I when I was working on my previous business I met a gentleman who is actually now on the leadership at Atlanta who had taken on the the name of the project was the Chattahoochee River project if I remember correctly and he was working with both

Reza (13:17)
and

Seyi Fabode (13:19)
the public sector and the private sector to address some of the issues that you've highlighted. And at that point, I actually didn't know there was a legal case going on. But what I distinctly remember was his continued insistence about the need for the private sector to really step up.

Reza (13:32)
Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.

Seyi Fabode (13:46)
because the funding required to maintain the sustainability and now based on the information you shared, the ongoing regional cooperation is what I believe he was working on then. It now makes it ever more clear to me why he was so passionate about the work he was doing considering the, as you've just highlighted, the critical nature of

of the Chattahoochee River to not just Georgia, but to Alabama as well.

Reza (14:12)
Yeah.

Yeah, yeah. Yeah, so, you know, that kind of regional challenge, you know, I'm gonna bring it down even further to pick on Alpharetta ⁓ as an archetype of a suburban opportunity and attention. And Alpharetta is where our new office is and it's located 25 miles north of Atlanta. And it embodies this regional planning paradox. It's an economic powerhouse, but its growth model challenges this metro-wide equity and cohesion.

Seyi Fabode (14:25)
Yeah.

Reza (14:41)
that we always look for. And by the number, so it's a population of 68,000, the median household income is $125,000. 65 % of workers commute by car with minimal transit access. It has an identity of a tech hub. It's home to a thousand tech companies and it brands itself as the technology city of the South. So it has a strong local economic base with Class A office parks, affluent schools, booming real estate.

But there's some tensions. Alpharetta is not part of MARTA. Most land use is zoned for low density development. It's a textbook example of how Atlanta suburbs have historically opted out of regional transit. And so it contributes to the sprawl and the congestion. Yet its leaders are investing in walkable downtowns, trail networks, mixed use developments, showing a pivot towards more urbanized suburbs. And our office, this is really interesting when we pulled up.

to this new office, it had in that same area there was an apartment complex and a hotel. And so they're trying to do this mixed use development that we always talk about in one of our laws. ⁓ And one of the advantages that a city can bring to make it more sustainable and thriving.

Seyi Fabode (15:44)
Yeah.

Reza (15:52)
It's not quite there yet. Like I wouldn't call it walkable, ⁓ you know, mixed use area, but they're trying. It's not just an office and a parking lot around it. It's like there was an office, a green belt. There was this apartment complex. It looks like maybe they will have shops in the, you know, on the bottom of that apartment complex, but it hasn't developed yet. There is a little hotel there. But once you leave that sort of...

Seyi Fabode (15:55)
Yeah. Yeah.

Yeah.

Reza (16:15)
parking lot, you're on the main road. So you can't walk there, you know, can't walk from there to somewhere else. So that's a bit of a limitation, but it's good to see a little bit of that mixed use. And so, you know, to close this part out, Che, before I turn it over to for comments, know, this Alpha Rider really highlights this governance fragmentation of the Atlanta region. You know, it shows the wealth and innovation is possible in these metro suburbs, but it also limits this

know, decision making to silos. And so the real question for these regional planners is can wealthier suburbs like Alpharetta be incentivized to participate in regional solutions on housing, transit, sustainability, rather than pursuing prosperity and isolation?

Seyi Fabode (16:50)
Hmm.

Yeah, man, that's such a good example of when I'd say good intentions meet up with the reality of, I'd say building a city. There's good intentions to put mixed use and get the elements that would help the city grow.

I really think Alpharetta will figure it out because the conversation is happening. I want to contrast it with not quite a city, but it's called a city, quote unquote, in the protests and discussions around it, also in the Atlanta area. And it's this 85 acre facility that is in the forest of Atlanta. It's called Cop City.

And the idea there being this facility where the Atlanta Police Department would provide training to thousands of officers. And it was going to be carved out of green space, some of that green space that we talked about, and essentially make it a mock city, but also enable trainees to sort of live in and around there.

Reza (17:55)
Mmm.

Seyi Fabode (18:06)
which would bring other things around it to enable people to live there, train there, and essentially build their lives. But there's been a lot of controversy with that because to your point Reza, apart from some of the police populace issues we have, especially with the minority population of

of Atlanta in this case, there's also just the fact that there's not much listening going on. I'm just trying to drop this in there and make it what the leadership desire for it to be without a recognition of, as you mentioned, the Alpharetta example. Can we invest in this not just for the end goal?

Reza (18:34)
Hmm, interesting. Yeah.

Seyi Fabode (18:52)
which in the case of the cop city is to train cops, but can we make this a livable zone in our city such that everybody here thrives and if your populace isn't thriving, your city isn't growing. That's just the simple framework there. So while there is some challenges in...

Reza (18:56)
Yeah.

Mm-hmm.

Yeah. Yeah.

Seyi Fabode (19:14)
of Florida and incentivizing participation in regional conversations. I do think there will be some positive outcomes there, which ties exactly directly into our law, the law you've picked for this, which is super apt for what we're talking about, which is that regional cooperation enhances sustainability. And the idea is that sustainable cities cannot exist in isolation.

Reza (19:29)
Mm-hmm.

Seyi Fabode (19:40)
city is in isolation but Alpharetta is trying to avoid being in isolation and the idea is that they must coordinate with surrounding municipalities and rural areas for truly sustainable regional development and this comes from Wheeler's research in 2002 which argued for the importance of regional approaches to urban sustainability with the recognition that a city cannot stand by itself.

Reza (19:41)
Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.

Seyi Fabode (20:10)
towards building sustainability into the days and the ways of the people who live there. The consequence of not cooperating regionally is inefficient resource use, conflicting land use policies. That's the perfect example in this Cubs City case. And an inability to address cross-boundary environmental issues. think...

Reza (20:21)
Mm-hmm.

Seyi Fabode (20:33)
If we want to reduce the issues of transportation and emissions from transportation, Alpharetta will have to work closely with Atlanta so that Marta can extend to Alpharetta. Simple. You get more people on trains, you reduce emissions. It's a pretty simple and straightforward logic there. So, yeah.

Reza (20:42)
Yes. Yes. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

Yeah, I know that's a great framing, Shay, is like really, you know, good example of cop city and then, you know, bringing that into the, you know, regional cooperation law number four that we have to really highlight this challenge. And so as I thought about, you know, our strategic foresight section about the future, instead of making predictions,

What I did was I set out three scenarios for what can happen in the next 10 or 15 years in Atlanta. And so the first scenario is successful regional integration. And so in this optimistic scenario, Atlanta achieved significant regional governance reforms in the next 10 years. A metropolitan-wide transit authority has created enabling comprehensive rail

Networks, regional housing and land use coordination reduces sprawl and improves affordability. Income equality decreases through coordinated workforce development and inclusive economic policies. And the region accommodates by that time almost 7 million residents while maintaining livability and environmental quality. So that's the optimistic scenario. Scenario number two is managed fragmentation. So in this middle scenario, Atlanta continues

Seyi Fabode (21:57)
Hmm.

Reza (22:03)
Current patterns with incremental improvements. There's some suburban counties that join MARTA enabling modest transit expansion. Regional cooperation increases on specific issues but doesn't achieve comprehensive integration. Income equality persists but doesn't worsen dramatically. Growth continues but creates increasing infrastructure strain and environmental pressure. And then scenario three is crisis driven change.

And so in this challenging scenario, Atlanta faces a major crisis, perhaps a severe traffic gridlock, infrastructure failure, or social unrest related to inequality that forces rapid change. And regional integration occurs not through gradual cooperation, but through crisis response. And while ultimately successful, this path involves significant disruption, economic costs that could have been avoided through proactive planning. And so Atlanta's future really depends on whether its residents and leaders can overcome

political fragmentation to pursue their shared interests in regional prosperity. The city's historical ability to reinvent itself, from the railroad junction that it was in the New South to a global metropolis with one of the busiest airports and thriving, growing city, it gives us reason for optimism, but success is far from guaranteed. And so, these scenarios are really like, it could go one of these

Seyi Fabode (23:20)
Please, we're here. Yeah.

Reza (23:20)
one of these ways.

it's hard to predict the system, you know, Shay, and so the system can move towards something optimal, but in different ways.

Seyi Fabode (23:26)
Yep. Yep.

Absolutely. So it's a reframing of our typical strategic futures that I think we might have to start using going forward because I really like it. It's a very clear-eyed, these are the possible outcomes here and the inputs into the system over the next few years will determine the outputs.

Reza (23:38)
Yeah. Yeah.

Yes.

Seyi Fabode (23:54)
once

the system turns those inputs into whatever direction or path it will be. And as much as we like to think about the positive outcomes, we do have some negative externalities that are becoming inputs into what the future could possibly be for Atlanta, that it is wise to consider what the base case scenario with less than Rosie.

positive scenario looks like. I really like this framing and I like the three possible features that you've laid out here. Thanks for reframing it that way.

Reza (24:25)
Thanks.

Yeah, thanks. So, Yaxie, that was our episode on Atlanta. It was, again, as we always say, now that we go and visit cities and use our future forward lens, it makes it really interesting to what you're paying attention to. It was really fun to realize that Lake Lanier has a certain part in this challenge that Atlanta faces. Alpharetta is an example of what

Seyi Fabode (24:43)
Yes.

Yeah.

Reza (24:55)
Atlanta is trying to go towards. So, you know, it's really enjoyable doing this. I, know, all your examples and comments were really helpful in sort of expanding this out. So as always, the city episode, another city episode in the bag. I can't wait to do the next one, you know.

Seyi Fabode (25:05)
I love it.

Yeah. Yeah.

Yeah. And the next one will be San Antonio, just to tease our audience. Cause I was there as well at the same time as you were in Atlanta, actually. And, but I want to say thank you. Atlanta is a place I've visited a lot, but you brought a new lens to it for me by bringing the historical context there. And I hope the same for our listeners as well. thanks so much for keeping your future forward lens on.

Reza (25:16)
Okay.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Seyi Fabode (25:37)
while you were in Atlanta. I guess we jump into Milbag right now. Yeah.

Reza (25:39)
Yeah.

Yeah, let's jump

into the last part of our episode, which is Mailbag. And this one is about the Chart of Cities episode that you did, And we had a very, very good mailbag from Volconz2v. That's his username on YouTube. And it's a little long, but I'm going to read through it. And then I'd love your sort of response because I think he has some really good points that he makes.

Seyi Fabode (25:51)
Yeah.

Yeah.

Reza (26:06)
So he said, I have liked your videos, especially as you get down to the core issues that are plaguing cities and Volkan, thank you for watching Future Forward. He says, I was a bit shocked that you have taken a negative view on chart of cities. I believe one of you work as a PM, which is me. So understand the value of talking to and learning from customers than using that to create products they love. So a few points that he raised, companies provide services to people and they're happy to pay.

Seyi Fabode (26:21)
Yes. ⁓

Reza (26:31)
and not get a vote on what the company does. Two, retirement homes, communities where you pay, live your life and not have to focus on the small things. The benefit of charter cities, especially as they become more popular, is that the ones that don't provide value to customers will not be in business long. If done half well, they can solve a lot of issues. The biggest one I see at the moment is that the EU doesn't want to expand the size of their cities, but more rural folk are moving to them.

and then add on immigration and you have increased housing prices that upset locals. Imagine if a North African country set up a charter city that was easy to move to, it would create local jobs, boost GDP and be a net positive for all involved. So really good take, Shay, what do you think?

Seyi Fabode (27:10)
Very

good take. So yes, the first response is thank you. Absolutely value the input there. You absolutely make a good point about Vulkan. You make a good point about, by using the customer analogy, think that always resonates with you. So I love that Vulkan brought that in. It's a fair point.

If the charter city doesn't provide value, residents will struggle to stay and consequently it will die like a typical product. I do still have concerns about firing a product. You can't fire your city easily. It means uprooting your entire life, job, social network, kids.

Reza (27:50)
Yeah.

Seyi Fabode (27:56)
so there's a little bit more stickiness even when it's not working for you. And while I agree with the customer sentiment and the product manager approach, it is the stickiness. And I think fundamentally for, for you and I, Reza and I speak for you, please correct me if I'm wrong here. It's, it's as much about the charter cities.

as it is about the people that are allowed to participate in the experiment of charter cities. It is really, in my view, a new form of exclusion in cities, and that's what we struggle with, Vulkan. So while I agree, you've pushed us to think a little bit more about how we consider charter cities.

Reza (28:24)
Mm-hmm.

Seyi Fabode (28:40)
Maybe the borrowing from the customer PM approach is how can we get stronger and quicker feedback mechanisms so that when a user is living in a city and it's not working, their voice can be fed in to improve how it's working. So a really good comment, very well thought through.

Reza (28:49)
Yes.

Yes.

Yeah. Yeah. And I

think your response is really good as well, Shay, because, you know, cities are systems. They're not necessarily products. The feedback loop can be different. So if a charter city is set up in a way where that feedback loop of its citizens don't go to how the city operates, can, it becomes a little more difficult. And you really, you have also have a good point about like it's, you know, you can't necessarily just sort of pluck yourself and leave a city. I mean, some people can, but it's not not as common.

Seyi Fabode (29:08)
Yeah. Yeah.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Reza (29:27)
⁓

So yeah, but great comment. Made us think about it. We love mailbags. And so if you have a mailbag, you're welcome to comment on our YouTube, on our LinkedIn posts, or just email us at hello at futureforward.fm. We also accept voice notes. We'd happy to play. Will you share with us? And you know, as we always say at the end, Shay,

Seyi Fabode (29:31)
Yeah, we do.

Yes.

Reza (29:48)
You know, thanks for listening to everyone. Please like and subscribe. Share this episode with someone that would find, maybe you have a friend in Atlanta, share it with them. I'm definitely gonna share this with the folks that I work with and see what they think. ⁓ But yeah, this has been fun, Shay. Thank you so much and until the next one, bye everyone.

Seyi Fabode (29:58)
Exactly.

Yeah.

Bye everyone and thanks so much Reza. Great episode as usual. Bye.

Reza (30:12)
All right, thanks, bye.