Future Forward

Seyi Fabode (00:01)
Hello, hello, hello Reza, how are you today? I am doing well, I'm doing well. It is another episode of Future Forward. How do you feel?

Reza (00:03)
I'm good Seyi how are you doing?

Yeah, Seyi you know, we're continuing our city edition that we started on, you know, a few months ago. And last week we did Atlanta and you teased that you were going to do San Antonio because the same week I was in Atlanta, you were in San Antonio for a conference. so, you know, you brought the Future Forward lens and this is going to be a really interesting episode because

Seyi Fabode (00:18)
Thank

Yes.

Reza (00:38)
It's a contrast. It's like there's contrasts in this that I can't wait to talk about. But before we jump in, Seyi, let's welcome our listeners ⁓ to our dedicated core of listeners. Thank you for joining us for Future Forward. And for our new listeners, ⁓ thanks as well for tuning in. ⁓ Future Forward is a conversation that Seyi and I have been having about cities and systems.

Seyi Fabode (00:43)
Yeah.

Reza (01:04)
for many years and we ⁓ wanted to bring you into this ⁓ discussion really driven by curiosity. And what we try to do is to shape out ⁓ what we, these topics that we talk about cities, we bring this economic and ecological lens to it. We talk about our 21 laws of cities and in doing so in each episode, we talk about the history of a particular topic. In this case, the topic is a city of San Antonio. Then, ⁓

We'll talk about the present day context and then provide some strategic foresight. And we're going to do what we did with the Atlanta episode is we're to do some scenario planning for where San Antonio can go. So I can't wait to hear what you're to bring up about San Antonio, Seyi.

Seyi Fabode (01:48)
Yeah, ⁓ it's so true that there are contrasts. I'm so glad you very quickly picked up on that as we're going through the show notes. So yes, welcome listeners. Today we'll be talking about San Antonio. It's a place ⁓ I've been to a lot of times. San Antonio has one of those ⁓ kid-friendly vibes. So the kids will take in there a few times, but...

This I'll say is the first time since we started doing Future Forward that I went without kids with the Future Forward lens on. And so I'll start from the past, the history of San Antonio. It's definitely one that's grown a lot. the 1940s, San Antonio had about 400,000 people. But historically, the...

history of San Antonio is really tied to the Alamo. And I'll give a very short history of the Alamo. And the Alamo began as Mission San Antonio de Padua in 1718. And it was established by Spanish missionaries to convert local Native American populations. By the early 1800s, it had become a military outpost and the

moment we all know San Antonio for, the most famous moment of San Antonio was in 1836 during the Texas Revolution when a small band of Texan defenders, and granted this is the story I was told from the perspective of the Texan defenders, so take it for what you will. There's this saying that history is as told by the conquerors, so we'll leave it at that.

⁓ There's Texan defenders, James Bowie, William Travis, Davy Crockett, people that ⁓ get a lot of air time by historians who talk about San Antonio. They held out for 13 days against the Mexican army led by General Santa Ana. And ⁓ the fall of the Alamo became a rallying cry. Remember the Alamo is the cry.

And it's sort of this thing that now comes up again as it relates to Texan independence and it has cemented its place in American law. And fast forward to, as I mentioned, to the 1940s, a city of 400,000 people then is now 1.5 million people today.

which makes it the second largest city in Texas. That's the stat that's stunned me the most, yeah. For how unreported San Antonio is, it is the second largest city ⁓ in Texas. I'll pause there, because some of the things I want to share now are really more about today, but I love your comments. But the point here being that, ⁓

Reza (04:43)
Yeah.

Yeah.

Seyi Fabode (05:09)
the military history of San Antonio still plays out in the current day and the growth in San Antonio. And there I see some of the struggle it has today, but I'd love your comments before I get into that.

Reza (05:25)
Yeah, ⁓

so great introduction. ⁓ know, San Antonio, as you put very well, sort of has this lore, right? It's a story. you know, narratives are very compelling for us as humans. We love stories and the story of San Antonio is a very interesting one. And I remember going to San Antonio. ⁓

Seyi Fabode (05:39)
Yeah.

Reza (05:49)
you know, when I first moved to Austin and that was in grad school and I went with some of my grad school friends, you know, from other countries. And, you know, when we went to the Alamo, I'm sorry to say we were underwhelmed. Like we thought it was gonna be so much more than what it was. And we were just like, what? We heard all about this Alamo thing, but this is a pretty small space, know, it's a pretty small place. So it's interesting this contrast between, you know, where it...

Seyi Fabode (06:03)
yeah.

Yep. Yep.

Reza (06:18)
situates itself in the narrative of Texan history and what it actually is as a city. And I know that you're gonna bring this up a little further, like one of the things that, know, one of the laws that fits into this section, and we're weaving it into every section for this episode, is that, you know, urban scaling predicts city performance. And you brought up really that San Antonio is the second largest city in Texas after Houston. And...

Seyi Fabode (06:22)
Yep.

Reza (06:45)
Our law states as cities grow, their economic and social outputs increase faster than the population itself, but only if resources are allocated efficiently. And I know that when we segue to this next part of the present day, we will see that it hasn't scaled in the way that you would have expected. And this is the contrast of San Antonio. So I can't wait for you to jump into this next part, Jay.

Seyi Fabode (07:07)
Absolutely. I

love that you teed it up that way. It is a classic example of the growth law, Reza. In 1940, mean, there were 400,000 people in San Antonio. And 2025, today, as we say, record this, it is more than three times that number, 1.5 million. It's about half a million people more than Austin, which gets a lot more air time.

than San Antonio. It's the second largest city in Texas, seventh in the US, and it has absolutely not lived up to its potential, unfortunately. The reason why I said earlier that part of its military past might be why is that its growth was really fueled by the fact that it's this strategic location.

for military presence in Texas. Fort Sam Houston, Lackland AFB, Air Force Base that is, and Randolph Air Force Base were magnets for federal investment, jobs and innovation. But those were carved out, not really part of the city as much. And consequently, even as money for the army, defense and

all related military paraphernalia, even as the money has increased, it hasn't totally sipped into the city of San Antonio, even as the population has increased at the same time. so San Antonio is really more of a city that is anchored around the tourism industry. And the Alamo,

as you just mentioned, as I just shared, is one of the biggest draws, but it's not much of a draw. I was there with the boys a few weeks ago. We went for a soccer tournament. It ended three days, the weekend. It ended and the boys were like, we want to go downtown to the Alamo. They'd been, but they wanted to go again. So we went and as we walk through,

I really realized they had forgotten how underwhelming it was because they were expecting more even as we went through. I can imagine when you have that experience, it's not like Atlanta, which we did in last episode. will go to Atlanta, if I go to Atlanta five times in a year, I will end up in different places those five times.

Reza (09:55)
Mm-hmm.

Yeah.

Seyi Fabode (09:58)
Not the case in San Antonio for as much. So the tourism sector is where it's anchored around. The River Walk is a prominent part of this. It is an economic multiplier, but again, very dense, just that. It's the River Walk, the Alamo, and you're almost done. So even as it sprawls, because that's happening now, even as it sprawls, there's this tension between

Reza (10:16)
Mm-hmm.

Seyi Fabode (10:28)
⁓ it's a dense central city location where you can walk. After the first day of the conference, I walked around and downtown is very walkable, even as cars blaze through, but it's very walkable. Some of the parts, some of the roads actually have the cobblestone on the road itself. And so you drive across cobblestone roads where you can also walk.

⁓ But the minute you leave the like two to three mile square mile dense part of downtown, it very quickly starts to show sprawl. And there's that tension there between density and car-centricity ⁓ that you have. The GDP per capita has lagged behind most other major metros. ⁓

Reza (11:11)
Yeah.

Mmm.

Seyi Fabode (11:26)
The untapped potential is what that speaks to. Over 90 % of residents in San Antonio are car dependent, which causes more spend on energy and infrastructure.

There's very little public transit, even though it's making strides. ⁓ There's the via metropolitan transit, which, yes, you've seen a 22 % increase in transit ridership and new buses coming online, but that is from a very low number. So 22 % sounds impressive, but when you're talking about a city of 1.5 million people and only

Reza (12:03)
Yeah.

Seyi Fabode (12:11)
in the tens of thousands do people actually ride the public transport systems, then you're not really impacting the population as much as you could with only 2.2 % of commuters biking. Just for those who love to bike, that's a pretty low number. The city itself has committed $2.3 billion to infrastructure bonds with that money.

being allotted to rapid transit, smart traffic signals, and new pedestrian plazas, which again, I hope, and we'll talk about this in the strategic foresight section, it is to expand the density that exists in the middle of the city, not just make it even more dense. You want to take away some of the sprawl by increasing the square mileage that can be considered as downtown.

Reza (13:02)
Yeah.

Seyi Fabode (13:09)
⁓ And then there's a lot of ⁓ hype and activity, some of it justified in the Pearl District, is this trying to make it a separate downtown with restaurants, converted buildings and warehouses. ⁓ And the homes around the Pearl District haven't caught up to the Pearl District. And it's the classic tale of gentrification that ⁓

Reza (13:34)
Hmm.

Mm.

Seyi Fabode (13:39)
is making that part of the city less affordable for the residents, the residents, but people moving into the city with more means can move to the Pearl District and think they're in San Antonio even as they erode some of the culture. So the city is at a crossroads. I like it. ⁓ It's a toned down version of,

the more quirky parts of Austin, but it has a long way to go. Is it going to double down on the sprawl, which is really problematic, or invest in transit systems to drive efficiency and livability? So I'd love your comments here, Reza, and the laws as well, yeah.

Reza (14:13)
Hmm.

Yeah, so Seyi, I think that is a very interesting situation ⁓ for San Antonio. It's like high car dependence, low public transit, ⁓ sprawl, trying to invest in infrastructure. A couple observations, when I ⁓ went to see one of my daughter's, Ali's band events last year, that was in San Antonio,

⁓ I spent the day, I went to the San Antonio Museum of Art and then I walked along the River Walk to the Pearl District. And two things struck me. One was, wow, this was a really great experience. I could walk along the River Walk, it was very walkable. ⁓ And ⁓ I enjoyed this, how you're describing like downtown's very walkable. ⁓ But I also realized like the Pearl District, as you mentioned, ⁓

to try to make this mixed use development. But what it came across to me was it was a mixed use development for visitors, for tourists, not for the people that live there. And so it seemed like it's been planted there, but not integrated into the rest of the city. And so for me as a visitor, I had a fantastic experience. I was like, wow, this is a great place to visit. I really enjoyed myself, but I couldn't see it.

Seyi Fabode (15:36)
Yeah. Yeah.

Yeah.

Yep.

Reza (15:57)
in the fabric of the city. It wasn't woven into the rest of the city's fabric, which was an interesting situation from that. And then the other thing that I've thought about San Antonio is that it's always there down the highway from Austin, ⁓ but always known as a tourist destination. ⁓

Seyi Fabode (16:02)
Absolutely.

That caught on me, yeah.

Mm-hmm.

Reza (16:24)
you know, whenever people come to Texas, they're like, well, what is there to do in Austin? But there's a ton of stuff to do in San Antonio. And I'm like, okay. And I feel a little bad because I love Austin so much. I'm like, you don't know what you're missing in Austin. You're missing, you know, the real deal of, ⁓ you know, city that's thriving with a great population here, nothing to dis on San Antonio, but it is a tourist magnet. ⁓ they, you know, it's good for...

Seyi Fabode (16:30)
You

huh.

Yeah.

Reza (16:51)
It's good economically, but I'm not sure as we're seeing here, it's not quite the sustainable ⁓ economic and ecological situation for them. I want to bring up the laws that ⁓ address this situation. One is, urban density drives efficiency. If you have higher density, when it's thoughtfully planted, reduces costs and environmental impact. San Antonio has this choice about which direction to go. ⁓

Seyi Fabode (17:19)
Yep.

Reza (17:20)
⁓ The second one is sustainable transportation improves livability. so, you know, if San Antonio prioritizes transit, cycling, walking over cars, it'll lead to a more sustainable and equitable city. mean, you know, 90 % commuting by car, you know, the level of poverty that San Antonio has, ⁓ it's definitely not the best situation for economically disadvantaged population. And then the last point here, social equity.

underpins urban sustainability, which is to underline the equitable access to resources is a fundamental for a thriving city. And we brought this up a little bit in the Atlanta episode, but this is like even more magnified over here in San Antonio, just because they're not setting up systems for that social equity to take place. If you don't have good transportation systems, if you don't have good infrastructure systems, you're going to make the city ⁓ more difficult.

for the citizens to thrive within. So, yeah, so we're really glad you picked those laws, They really bring it to light.

Seyi Fabode (18:21)
Absolutely, Yeah, ⁓

and ⁓ thank you so much for sharing those and sort of providing additional framing there. One thing I realized I didn't share when I was talking about the GDP for San Antonio, which underpins your point, Reza, is that Midland, Texas, which is considered the highest GDP per person in the US,

Reza (18:48)
Mm.

Seyi Fabode (18:48)
The GDP per person for Midland Texas is $228,000 per person. San Antonio is 56,000. San Antonio doesn't even show up in the top, I think like 80 or so, even as it is number seven in terms of number of residents in the population. So again, it's the contrast. It's the contrast. And as I...

Reza (19:12)
This is the contrast. This is the contrast.

Seyi Fabode (19:17)
move now into sort of the strategic foresight side of things. I'll quickly drop some additional stats and then dive into the new format that you did during the last episode that I really like and will probably incorporate more now. The equity challenges in San Antonio. Reza, you mentioned poverty levels. The stat here is that 28.5 % poverty rate.

That is one in every three residents of San Antonio, almost one in every three lives below the poverty line. That is unacceptable for any city. And while the city is doing a lot, the decade of downtown with the 2.1 billion investment I mentioned, the San Antonio Tomorrow Plan, ⁓ there's a lot of work.

Reza (19:59)
Yeah, Staggering.

Seyi Fabode (20:16)
going into trying to address it. It's a majority Latino population. Income, housing, digital access, all these multiple systems under the system of the city all have to be addressed. And so we're talking about a complex problem, wicked problem in some cases. The digital divide is high. 38 % of households lack broadband.

two of every five homes does not have broadband access. It's insane. And that limits access. ⁓ There's a lot of money being spent on regional sustainability with some climate resilience efforts. again, more needs to go into fixing the problems in San Antonio. And I don't think the money is being spent. ⁓ There's not enough money being spent, again.

Reza (20:50)
That's crazy.

Seyi Fabode (21:16)
Only one source of real income into the city, it's tourism. As you can imagine, that went to zero during COVID and the city is still recovering from that. A few of the stores along the shops, along the Riverwalk, never opened once pandemic ended. So the strategic, sort of the positive futures will go three future possibilities here. ⁓ San Antonio has a model of inclusive

Reza (21:29)
Yeah. Wow.

Seyi Fabode (21:46)
⁓ urban prosperity, where San Antonio takes the cultural heritage, the diversity of its demographics, and the fact it is actually a strategic location. It is strategically positioned in Texas and quite easily accessible from the other major cities as well. ⁓ It could focus on affordable housing for all.

taking and borrowing from the Vienna ⁓ project, greater Copenhagen ⁓ project. I mean, sorry, the Vienna project that is all around building social housing ⁓ is the idea here. ⁓ A serious emphasis on universal broadband access and digital literacy, spending some of the money, or even just creative ways, working with

corporate partners to increase the literacy levels in the city. ⁓ The urban core is already vibrant, but instead of just paying as much attention as the city's paying to the Pearl District, to do a lot more of almost honestly, connecting the current downtown and Pearl District by developing a wider swath of

what should now be known as downtown instead of this separate and unequal approach that it's taken. And consequently, to make all those things happen, there needs to be a concerted effort to build ⁓ electrified transit networks, safe cycling, infrastructure, connecting all the neighborhoods, but not just through roads and expressways. San Antonio has a lot of expressways, ⁓ but that needs to change.

Reza (23:20)
Mm.

Yeah.

Seyi Fabode (23:43)
The cultural heritage, festivals, food markets, public art, it's a lot of public art, I fail to mention that, foster that and increase that to bring more interest and more people to San Antonio. So that's the first possible future. The second one is the outcome would be not so great.

Reza (24:11)
Mm-hmm.

Seyi Fabode (24:11)
if San

Antonio continues to keep business as usual right now, where it's growing rapidly but unevenly and the infrastructure, equity and sustainability challenges are ongoing. That would not be a great future path because what would happen there is continued sprawl, which as we shared is not working, strained public service, which is just.

lagging behind the population growth so much. When we first moved to Austin, I would complain about, man, there's no public transport. And we moved from Chicago, which has one of the best public transit systems in the US. And I would complain about Austin. And then I visited San Antonio. It's like, wow, I didn't realize it could get worse. And it could get worse if the city leadership continue with business as usual.

Reza (24:51)
Mm.

Hahaha.

Seyi Fabode (25:09)
because it will continue the inequities that you so like clearly shared earlier Reza. And yes, there's some money being spent in incremental progress, parks, some transit, downtown revitalization. But I truly think there should be exponential effort, not just what is currently going on, but hey, if they keep it as business as usual, things will worsen.

And ⁓ the tourism, which hasn't quite recovered from COVID, and the military influence will continue to keep the city in this state of tension is maybe the best way to talk about it. And then ⁓ the third sort of future scenario is a resilient green San Antonio is how we've chosen to frame it, where

a lot of money is spent on rising to the challenge of climate change and just the river walk, the river literally flows through the city. Make that part of or even the core of the resilience building of the city is how I was thinking about it as I was pulling it up as a ⁓ city like Amsterdam has done.

Reza (26:21)
Mm-hmm.

Mm.

Seyi Fabode (26:36)
Amsterdam is a resilient city, and they've built around the river, with the river, to make it climate resilient. And that has led to a lot more tourism as well. this is like that loop we always talk about, Reza. The more you pay attention to resilience, the stronger you get. And then when

Reza (26:38)
Yeah.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Seyi Fabode (27:03)
disaster happens, we hope it doesn't, but resilience is recovering better when disaster happens. San Antonio can build around the river to make it a resilient city. Circular urban metabolism where waste reduction, recycling and local food systems all work hand in hand. ⁓

Reza (27:10)
Yeah.

Seyi Fabode (27:31)
It's in San Antonio is in Behar County, if I remember correctly, and working with other towns in Behar County will help with the regional cooperation thing we always talk about. again, these three scenarios that we're mentioning all center around a very clear direction towards working.

electrified transportation systems. think if we leave everything else, fixing the transportation system will lead to a lot of ⁓ addressing a lot of the problems the city is currently facing. And so there's that future possibility where San Antonio leverages the rivers and the greenway system and becomes a model for climate adaptation, even as

the rest of Texas for some reason, in some places, I mean, seem to be moving in the opposite direction. San Antonio could take leadership here due to the centrality of the river.

Reza (28:39)
I love how you shared this, Seyi. These are really ⁓ great ways of San Antonio taking advantage of its advantages, right? So if I were to summarize, you have your first scenario, which is this inclusive urban prosperity and it's taking advantage of this angle of Latino heritage, vibrant downtown. And the key laws and lessons are the social equity, the mixed land use and the digital inclusion, really to... ⁓

Seyi Fabode (28:49)
Yes.

Reza (29:09)
set San Antonio on this thriving path. And then the last one, the third one, which I think is another really good framing, I loved it, which is this resilient green San Antonio really, the angle is the river, the greenways, the river walk, ⁓ and being a leader in climate adaptation and really taking the lead on that and the key laws there are, know, resilience, urban greening, and the regional cooperation. And then the one in the middle, which is the business as usual,

scenario too, you know, it'll just end up being like any other sunbelt sprawling city. And it can continue to focus on tourism and military, but you know, you're not going to get these other advantages that can come from what San Antonio already has and put it on a better path that it is right now, that is right now on. I mean, you brought up some really very disturbing statistics. I mean, it's just like, I didn't realize that

Seyi Fabode (29:59)
Yeah.

Reza (30:06)
You get a sense when you go to San Antonio that it feels different. The moment you drive into San Antonio, you just feel like it's a different place than it is Houston or Austin or Dallas or what have you. ⁓ It's been limited by ⁓ various factors that have its history that have led to what it is today, but it has some advantages being the seventh largest city in the country to...

Seyi Fabode (30:14)
Yeah.

Reza (30:34)
really take the lead in these two possible directions that you proposed and become a more thriving city. So fantastic job, Seyi. I loved it.

Seyi Fabode (30:42)
Thank

you. No, I borrowed your framing from the last Atlanta episode and it really did share some, led to some stark realizations that while we share the business as usual, ⁓ future possibilities, that absolutely should not be the one the city chooses here. If there's any San Antonio leader listening to this, business as usual will not work.

it will not lead to a thriving city or sustainable city for its residents. ⁓ And that is, as I'm sure most of our listeners agree, that is not the future we want for the cities that we live in and care about. So I'm glad we got the opportunity to do two city episodes back to back as a result of recent travel and ⁓

Reza (31:36)
Yeah.

Seyi Fabode (31:40)
the lens of Future Forward and the laws have really made visiting, we both really enjoyed traveling before now. And I think this has really stepped it up for us as well.

Reza (31:52)
Yeah.

Yeah, as I mentioned to you, as I was in the Uber back ⁓ to the airport in Atlanta, I already started researching for this episode because I was like, man, I can't wait. Like all these things in my head and I just wanted to start putting it down in our podcast notes. So I can't wait for the next one, Seyi. ⁓ I'll be going to Houston ⁓ at some point this summer. And so I can't wait to do an episode on Houston. ⁓

Seyi Fabode (32:02)
That's awesome. ⁓

Reza (32:19)
But yeah, this has been a really good addition to our podcast repertoire. ⁓ We both really enjoy doing it. And for our listeners that are curious or have feedback, ⁓ feel free to comment on our YouTube or LinkedIn ⁓ or send us an email to hello at futureforward.fm. We really appreciate you listening. Like and subscribe, rate and review. Share this episode with someone that you know in San Antonio that might enjoy this.

Seyi Fabode (32:46)
Yeah.

Reza (32:48)
And until our next ⁓ episode, thank you and thank you Seyi, that was a fantastic one. ⁓ Look forward to the next episode that we do.

Seyi Fabode (32:57)
Thanks so much and bye listeners. We'll see you soon.

Reza (33:00)
Alright, bye.